On Thursday March 21, the German Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG) based at the Faculty of Law, Thammasat University, will present a seminar of interest to students of law, history, political science, economics, development studies, China Studies, Asian Studies, and other fields of study. Geopolitical Outlooks for Eurasia in 2019 Revisited will be presented from 1pm to 5pm at the Jitti Tingsabadh Room, Faculty of Law, Thammasat University, Tha Prachan Campus.

It will discuss the increasing importance of the Eurasian supercontinent reaching from Portugal to Japan.  How this new development affects the global balance of power will be be addressed in terms of governance, security and economy. A lecture will be delivered by Ajarn Henning Glaser, director of CPG.

The Thammasat University Library has acquired some books coedited by Ajarn Henning. They include Constitutional jurisprudence: function, impact and challenges; Constitutionalism and good governance: Eastern and Western perspectives; and Norms, interests, and values: conflict and consent in the constitutional basic order.

Among guests involved in a panel discussion after Ajarn Henning’s presentation will be Dr. Virot Ali of the Faculty of Political Science, Thammasat University. Ajarn Virot earned a bachelor’s degree in government and politics at Thammasat University, followed by a master’s degree in economic and social studies (government-political science) at The University of Manchester, United Kingdom, and a PhD in political science and international studies (POLSIS) at School of Government and Society, University of Birmingham, UK. Ajarn Virot’s main academic interests include state strategy in global political economy and political economy in Southeast Asia.

Student interested to attend are welcome to register online.

An expanding power

As TU students know, Eurasia is a vast area of some 90 nations and over 5 billion inhabitants. Its largest cities are Beijing, Shanghai (People’s Republic of China), Karachi (Pakistan), New Delhi, Mumbai (India), Istanbul (Turkey), Tehran (Iran), Paris (France), Berlin (Germany), Baghdad (Iraq), Rome (Italy), Tokyo (Japan), Seoul (South Korea), Amsterdam (Netherlands), Moscow (Russia), Madrid (Spain), and London (United Kingdom). A brief definition of Eurasia is the combined continental landmass of Europe and Asia.

Eurasia covers over one-third of the Earth’s total land area and contains almost three-fourths of the world’s population. Despite its size, Eurasia is only one continent.

Ajarn Henning will focus on one especially significant plan for Eurasian dominance, The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), also known as the One Belt One Road (OBOR) development plan  by the Chinese government. It involves infrastructure development and investments in 152 countries and international organizations in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, Latin America and Africa. First announced in 2013, BRI was intended to enhance regional connectivity, with a dominant Chinese trading network.

As most TU students are aware, in 2005, the Chinese pharmaceutical company Holley Group and the Thai industrial estate developer Amata Group signed an agreement to develop the Thai–Chinese Rayong Industrial Zone. Since 2012, Chinese companies have opened solar, rubber, and industrial manufacturing plants in the zone, and the zone expects the number to increase to 500 by 2021. Chinese media have attributed this to Thailand’s zero tax incentives on land use and export products as well as favorable labor costs, and claimed that the zone had created more than 3000 local jobs.

In December 2017, China and Thailand began the construction of a high-speed rail project linking the cities of Bangkok and Nakhon Ratchasima, which will be further extended to Nong Khai to connect with Laos, as part of the planned Kunming–Singapore railway.

The World Bank website offers many in-depth observations about BRI:

• The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is an ambitious effort to improve regional cooperation and connectivity on a trans-continental scale. The initiative aims to strengthen infrastructure, trade, and investment links between China and some 65 other countries that account collectively for over 30 percent of global GDP, 62 percent of population, and 75 percent of known energy reserves. The BRI consists primarily of the Silk Road Economic Belt, linking China to Central and South Asia and onward to Europe, and the New Maritime Silk Road, linking China to the nations of South East Asia, the Gulf Countries, North Africa, and on to Europe. Six other economic corridors have been identified to link other countries to the Belt and the Road. The scope of the initiative is still taking shape—more recently the initiative has been interpreted to be open to all countries as well as international and regional organizations. Why is important to study the BRI? The Belt and Road Initiative can transform the economic environment in which economies in the region operate. Regional cooperation on the new and improved transport infrastructure and policy reforms could substantially reduce trade costs and improve connectivity, leading to higher cross-border trade and investment and improved growth in the region. For example, shipment times from China to Central Europe are approximately 30 days, as most goods travel by sea. Shipment times by train are about half as long, but given current infrastructure, much costlier. Hence, improving the capacity and network of rail infrastructure could radically change average travel times. And while rail transport will remain costlier than maritime for these routes, the time and cost reduction will have significant consequences for certain goods impacting the mode choice and total flows of international trade.

• However, there are significant economic and policy challenges, and the realization of the potential benefits of BRI is by no means automatic. Policy reforms could have large effects. For example, Doing Business indicators show that in Central Asia it can take up to 50 days to comply with all procedures to import goods. It takes less than 10 in G7 countries, indicating the large scope for improvements at the border in the region. More generally, the return on investment in infrastructure is likely to be low or even negative unless complementary reforms are carried to improve institutions and the policy environment.
• For individual countries, it will be important to evaluate the possible effects of participating to the BRI and the needed policies and institutional reforms. Some of the infrastructure and policy reforms envisaged by the BRI will be difficult to implement, creating risks ranging from fiscal sustainability, to negative environmental and social implications. There are also potential economic shocks created by the reduced trade costs that will require policies to deal with the adjustment and the lagging and negatively affected territories. Finally, opportunities for growth and poverty reduction will likely be contingent on appropriate macroeconomic conditions and supportive institutions and will differ for different countries and different social groups within countries depending on their comparative advantage, initial conditions and ability to reform.

There are many other blogs and commentaries on the World Bank site that should be of interest to students. One in particular, about the Eurasian Center for Food Security describes how food crises may be avoided by careful planning and mutual cooperation. Also, how to deal with the natural resources of Eurasia is another subject of vital importance. 

(All Images courtesy of Wikimedia Commons)