On Wednesday, 14 July 2021, Thammasat University students are cordially invited to join a free webinar, A song of wind & fire: a statistical journey through an uncertain world.

The Thammasat University Library collection includes a number of books about different aspects of wind flow.

Wind flow is an important element in terms of current weather and predicting future forecasts. Wind transports moisture and temperature from one area to another, causing weather conditions to change with the shift of wind direction.

The event is hosted by the School of Mathematics and Statistics, the University of Melbourne, Australia.

The webinar will start at 3pm Bangkok time.

As the event webpage explains,

In this public lecture, Dr Rachael Quill will explore how shedding light on the uncertainties of wind flow across the environment can support informed decision-making in bushfire management and renewable energy generation.

The weather and its uncertainties influence our decisions every day. Did you take an umbrella today, just in case, or did you get caught in that shower? In many scenarios, being unprepared for the unknown might only mean a dampening of our pride. But in others, the cost of not understanding uncertainty can be catastrophic.

Extreme fire behaviours are being witnessed at an increasing rate across Australia and the world. Such behaviours were recorded in 2003 as fires rushed from the mountains into the suburbs of Canberra, destroying 500 homes and sadly claiming 4 lives. Nearly two decades of scientific research since then has pushed the boundaries of our understanding in fire dynamics, bushfire prediction and emergency management. In this lecture, we will explore how improving the understanding of uncertainties around fire behaviour enables more informed fire management through seeing a fuller picture of an event.

The principles of accounting for uncertainty translate into many different fields. In the second half of this lecture, we will explore this notion in relation to renewable energy. Integrating renewable and intermittent power into national electricity grids is a global challenge in the pursuit of lowering our carbon emissions. Enabling accurate and timely prediction of resources, such as wind, involves understanding its inherent variability then communicating and accounting for uncertainty in prediction.

In a world where hard decisions must be made to address global challenges, we need to ensure those decisions are made knowing the fullest picture possible. Through shedding light on the grey areas of uncertainty, you may still choose not to take your umbrella but you at least do it in full knowledge of your risk of getting wet.

This lecture is part of the ACEMS Virtual Public Lecture Series.

The Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers (ACEMS) brings together for the first time a critical mass of Australia’s best researchers in applied mathematics, statistics, mathematical physics and machine learning. With partner researchers ACEMS engages in research programs that combine innovative methods for the analysis of data with theoretical, methodological and computational foundations, provided by advanced mathematical and statistical modelling…

Dr Rachael Quill is an Associate Investigator with ACEMS, and recently appointed Forecast System Developer at Weatherzone.

Recently a Research Fellow at the University of Melbourne, her key research interests lie within applied statistics and the analysis of environmental data. Rachael studied for her PhD at the University of New South Wales (UNSW) Canberra. Her thesis, ‘Statistical characterisation of wind fields over complex terrain for bushfire modelling applications’, had particular focus on the impacts of surface roughness on wind fields as well as the development of probabilistic approaches to handle uncertainty in fire modelling.

Rachael holds an MSci in Mathematics and Statistics from Lancaster University in the UK, during which she took part in a 12-month exchange program to the Australian National University (ANU). Her Honours thesis considered dynamic modelling of wind speeds for analysis of wind power. Following her undergraduate studies, Rachael relocated to Australia and completed a multidisciplinary Masters program at the ANU, covering topics from computer science to meteorology.

For any further questions or information, kindly write to this email address:

rverde@unimelb.edu.au

Thailand and wind flow

There has been considerable research in the Kingdom about wind flow.

On an international basis, Thailand is considered to have relatively low average wind speeds, as Thailand is near the equator which has generally low wind speed. However, some mountain ranges, canyons, and slopes increase wind speeds. Apart from the monsoon seasons, high speed offshore winds occur in Bandon Bay in Surat Thani Province, Pattani Gulf in Songkhla, and Pattani Province, and Songkhla Lake in Songkhla Province.

In 2019, Dr. Jompob Waewsak, formerly of the Research Center in Energy and Environment, Division of Physics, Faculty of Science, Thaksin University (Phatthalung Campus), Songkhla and colleagues published an article on Wind Resource Assessment of the Southernmost Region of Thailand Using Atmospheric and Computational Fluid Dynamics Wind Flow Modeling.

The paper’s abstract follows:

Abstract: This paper presents the wind resource assessment of the southernmost region of Thailand using atmospheric and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) wind flow modeling. The predicted wind data by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric modeling, assimilated to a virtual met mast, along with high-resolution topographic and roughness digital data, are then used as the main input for the CFD microscale wind flow modeling and high resolution wind resource mapping at elevations of 80 m, 100 m, 120 m, and 140 m agl. Numerical results are validated using measured wind data. Results show that the potential area where the wind speeds at 120 m agl are above 8.0 m/s is 86 km2 , corresponding to a technical power potential in the order of 300 MW. The installation of wind power plants in the areas with the best wind resource could generate 690 GWh/year of electricity, thus avoiding greenhouse gas emissions of 1.2 million tonnes CO2eq/year to the atmosphere. On the other hand, developing power plants with International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) Class IV wind turbines in areas of lower wind resource, but with easier access, could generate nearly 3000 GWh/yr of energy, with a CO2eq emissions avoidance of 5 million tonnes CO2eq on a yearly basis.

In 2013, Dr. Thitipong Unchai of the Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Ubon Ratchathani Rajabhat University, published research on CFD Evaluation of Wind Flow Over Hill: A Comparison of Trapezoid Hill Shape and Relative Geometry.

The article’ abstract follows:

Abstract

Computational fluid dynamics is used to explore new aspects of wind flow over a hill. This analysis focuses on flow dependency and comparison of results from measurements and simulations to show the optimum turbulance model and the possibility of replacing measurements with simulations. The first half of the paper investigates a suitable turbulence model for the suitable site of a wind turbine. Results of the standard k-ε model are compared precisely with the measures in front of the hill top; while the Reynolds Stress Model showed exact results after 1.0 times of hill steep ness, but the standard k-ε model and standard k-ω model showed more of an underestimation. In addition,velocity flow over Pha Taem hill topography and reference geometry shape are compared to find a suitable site for a turbine in case the actual hill structure is associated with geometric shape. Further study of the geometry shape of the hill and its suitable site will be reported elsewhere.

(All images courtesy of Wikimedia Commons)