Thammasat University students interested in economics, ASEAN studies, Myanmar, political science, and related subjects may find it useful to participate in a free 13 December Zoom webinar on A Near-Term Economic Outlook for Myanmar in 2024.
The event, on Wednesday, 13 December 2023 at 8am Bangkok time, is presented by ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore.
The TU Library collection includes several books about different aspects of economics in Myanmar.
Students are invited to register at this link:
https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/4417018438036/WN_V4lk9mc9QpyBPCSW6pFK_w#/registration
The event webpage notes:
About the Webinar
Close to three years after the 2021 coup, Myanmar’s economy continues to falter under the military-controlled State Administration Council (SAC). This is driven by a widespread lack of confidence and the regime’s policy approach, geared towards economic control and extracting foreign exchange, though the regime continues to try to deflect blame and coerce market forces into submission. Recent corruption scandals have rocked the SAC’s highest echelons, showing both the extent of the country’s patronage system and the severity of its economic problems. Operation 1027, launched by ethnic armed organisations in northern Shan State in late October, has also exposed the vulnerability of the main arteries of Myanmar’s border trade.
For a near-term outlook on Myanmar’s economy in 2024, including some discussion on the effects of recent sanctions and Operation 1027, join the ISEAS Myanmar Studies Programme in conversation with a long-time analyst of Myanmar’s business environment, including private sector development and foreign direct investment.
About the Speaker
Dr. Jared Bissinger is a development economist and independent consultant specialising in private sector development and the business environment in Myanmar. Jared has been working primarily in and on Myanmar since 2011. […]
The website of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) states:
Economic forecasts for Myanmar:
Myanmar
Moderate gains in industry and services have driven modest economic recovery. Developments suggest growth this year and next consistent with the ADO April 2023 forecasts (Table 2.4.9). Political uncertainty and continuing domestic conflict undermine prospects for stronger and more sustainable growth able to alleviate widespread poverty and food insecurity.
Inflation is expected to stay higher than in the April forecast in light of lingering effects from sharp depreciation of the Myanmar kyat, supply disruption, and low domestic food production.
Modest improvement in manufacturing and construction supported growth in industry in the first half of fiscal year 2023 (FY2023, ending 30 September 2023). The S&P manufacturing purchasing managers’ index improved significantly across industries, riding above a neutral forecast reading of 50 since February 2023. Construction gradually recovered with the resumption of public investment projects and increased demand for real estate development. Recovery in the services sector outpaced expectations, driven
by moderate growth across the board. While security concerns remain high, international tourist arrivals were more than 4.5 times higher in the first 8 months of FY2023 than a year earlier. Agriculture will likely contract, as projected in ADO April 2023, because of unfavorable weather caused by Cyclone Mocha in May and the effects of El Niño. Also depressing agricultural output were higher transportation and production costs and heightened armed conflict in some rural areas. […]
Downside risks to the forecast are significant.
They include continued political tensions, logistic constraints, currency depreciation, international sanctions on the country, trade restrictions, and weaker global demand.
In June, the World Bank website observed:
Myanmar Economic Monitor June 2023: A fragile recovery. Key Findings
Key Findings
Economic conditions in Myanmar have stabilized in the first half of 2023. Exchange rates have remained steady, while inflation in food and fuel prices has eased. Most indicators suggest economic activity is slowly increasing, albeit from a very low base. Manufacturing output and new orders have risen quickly, sales of domestic products have picked up, while passenger and freight transport volumes are rising. Although agricultural production seems to have weakened, profitability is improving as farmgate prices rise and input costs ease, and this is likely to prompt higher production in coming seasons. Firms across all sectors report operating at higher capacity in the last quarter, with companies in non-retail services performing best. Retail sector performance has also improved, with sales picking up and firms sourcing more goods locally.
However, several factors are constraining the pace of this recovery. Household incomes remain weak, limiting the ability of domestic demand to drive growth. High prices and shortages resulting from import restrictions make it difficult for many businesses to source essential inputs, while power outages have become prominent. Investment remains weak, with new business registrations at a low level. Other than in the agriculture sector, reported profits continue to decline as the conflict raises costs and limits activity in some areas. Overall, the economy is still operating well below pre-pandemic levels, in sharp contrast to the rest of the region.
Policy changes continue to create uncertainty and obstacles for doing business, with further regulations and restrictions introduced on international trade and financial transfers. Exporters face challenges from waning external demand, overvalued official exchange rates, exchange conversion requirements, and the higher cost and reduced availability of imported inputs. With exports declining and imports remaining stable, Myanmar returned to a trade deficit in the six months to March 2023.
The labor market remains weak, with declining employment rates especially marked in states and regions more affected by conflict. Declining productivity and low labor demand have put significant downward pressure on wages, which dropped by an average of 15% in real terms between 2017 and 2022. […]
Risks around these projections include worsening conflict, a further slump in electricity generation, persistence of inflationary pressure, and further deterioration in the business environment. The destruction caused by Cyclone Mocha in May was an unwelcome reminder of Myanmar’s ongoing vulnerability to natural disasters.
Employment, incomes and coping mechanisms […]
The weakening labor market, plus the sharp rise in inflation, has put significant pressure on household incomes. The combination of less employment, fewer hours worked, and increasing incidence of casual work and self-employment has reduced the earning capacity of many families. At the of end 2022, almost half of Myanmar households reported decreasing incomes over the past year, while only 15% reported an increase.
High food inflation and reduced incomes mean that food security and nutrition worsened further during the first half of 2023. According to a May 2023 World Bank survey, 48% of farming households worry about not having enough food to eat, up from about 26% in May 2022. A recent FAO and WFP assessment estimates that 29% of households are moderately or severely food insecure. The World Bank Farm Survey also shows a remarkable drop in the consumption of nutritious foods such as milk, meat, fish, and eggs.
As a result, Myanmar’s progress against malnutrition seems to have halted or reversed. Coping mechanisms have been stretched by the cumulative impact of shocks to incomes, employment and prices with more than half of households forced to reduce assets, increase borrowing, and/or reduce spending. Such coping strategies can have damaging impacts on welfare in the short term, and also affect longer-term earning capacity to the extent that children are withdrawn from school, investments in health or agricultural inputs suffer, or productive assets are sold. Some families also use long term migration as a coping strategy, usually within Myanmar but sometimes abroad.
(All images courtesy of Wikimedia Commons)