Thammasat University students interested in ASEAN studies, demographics, political science, sociology, and related subjects may find it useful to participate in a free 25 January Zoom webinar on Demographic Transitions in Southeast Asia: Reframing How We Think and Act about Ageing.

The event, on Thursday, 25 January at 9am Bangkok time, is presented by the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore.

The TU Library collection includes several books about different aspects of demographics in Southeast Asia.

Students are invited to register at this link:

https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3017055763166/WN_IsD9HEpAQYyy2reG4bhPnw#/registration

The event webpage explains:

About the Webinar

Population ageing is a defining trend of the 21st century and Southeast Asian (SEA) region is experiencing intense demographic changes. Although countries in SEA are heterogenous in their demographic profiles, none of them is spared from ageing.

Population ageing could be a sign of longer lives and healthier old ages, but demographic transitions could be a ticking time bomb and disastrous if countries fail to invest in time of becoming old. SEA countries, which are in different demographic transitions, face different challenges, from creating enough good jobs and building competitive human capital to building institutions that are conducive to old-age savings and transfers.

In this webinar, two speakers, Professor Thanh Long Giang from National Economic University and Professor Reuben Ng from National University of Singapore will be speaking about demographic transitions in Southeast Asia drawing on experiences from Vietnam and Singapore.The two speakers will bring in country experiences including in key policy areas of pension and social insurance systems, productivity-led economic growth, maintaining the social well-being of the older persons, immigration policies, and regional cooperation.

About the Speakers

Thanh-Long Giang is currently an Associate Professor at National Economics University; a Research Fellow at Thang Long University; and a Senior Researcher at Institute of Social and Medical Studies (ISMS); an Affiliate Research Fellow of Oxford Institute of Population Ageing at the University of Oxford (UK); and an Affiliate Senior Researcher at Menzies Institute of Medical Research at the University of Tasmania (Australia).

Reuben Ng is an Assistant Professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy and Lead Scientist at the Lloyd’s Register Foundation Institute for the Public Understanding of Risk, NUS.

A working paper posted on the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute website in 2020 declared:

The population of East and Southeast Asia has been ageing rapidly and will begin to decline ahead of other regions by 2040. By 2060, the elderly will comprise 40% of their total population, thus making them ‘super-aged’ societies. These regions are undergoing major demographic structure changes due to a rapid decline in birth rate and extension of life expectancy. While increased life expectancy and a lower percentage of youth population will have a positive impact on the economic growth in the short and long terms, a higher percentage of older people will have a negative impact in the long term. Additionally, growth in the labour force has a positive impact on the short-term and long-term economic growth. While ageing population will slow down economic growth in the long term, it is possible that this decline could be balanced by a higher labour force growth rate. Surviving in a super-aged society requires policies that proactively enhance economic growth.

The paper’s conclusion:

East and Southeast Asian countries have undergone major demographic changes in a short time, and their populations are expected to age very rapidly due to declining birth rates and increased life expectancy. These regions’ total population should begin to decline by 2040, earlier than other regions, and therefore, by 2060, these countries will become ‘super-aged societies’ wherein approximately 40% of the population is elderly. In the past, East and Southeast Asian countries achieved very high economic growth and were known as ‘Asian Economic Miracles’ because they benefited from the demographic dividend; however, now, they are transiting to a new era of experiencing ‘demographic onus’ and need to think about sustaining their economic growth.

This paper used the latest international panel data to perform a quantitative analysis regarding how demographic changes impact economic growth. These findings suggest that in an aged society, the higher proportion of elderly people will have a negative impact on the economic growth in the long term. However, increased life expectancy and a decline in the youth population ratio will support economic growth, and strengthening human capital by promoting labour force participation and extending the years of education could offset the negative effect of more elderly people in the population and thus boost the economic growth.

Furthermore, a trial calculation using the UN’s forecast data confirmed that the higher ratio of elderly people in East and Southeast Asia will suppress the economic growth from 2020 on, and therefore, securing labour is a critical factor in supporting the growth of these economies. It is found that even now this can offset the negative impact of ageing to a certain degree. However, there is ample room for economic growth if more labour can be secured.

In addition to expanding employment of women and foreign workers, it is thus important to build a society where healthy elderly people are willing and able to work for a long time, as the transition to a ‘super-aged society’ is already in progress. To bring about such a society, technology is required, and it will enable people to live long healthy lives and will promote the building of a supportive environment for workers of all kinds, including the elderly. For example, automation and artificial intelligence (AI) will not only supplement the labour force directly but will extend the elderly people’s career spans by promoting preventive care and various health initiatives to extend healthy life expectancy. Productivity growth can also be revived by enhancing contributions to human resources through upgrading elderly people’s job skills and providing them with new tools that are tailored for their jobs.

Most people tend to perceive ageing in a negative light, but a long life span and securing a long career life span will ensure extracting the optimum level of longevity dividend. It is important that East and Southeast Asian regions, which are on the cusp of becoming super-aged societies, maximise the benefits of this longevity dividend by committing themselves to having the ‘flexibility to change’ as pointed out by Bloom, Finley (2009), and having a strong commitment towards their work ethic and progress, aspects that have supported their remarkable economic growth in the past.

In 2022, research was posted on the Credit Suisse website on the same subject matter.  

(All images courtesy of Wikimedia Commons)