Thammasat University students interested in Asia-Pacific studies, economics, political science, international relations, diplomacy, and related subjects may find it useful to participate in a free 30 May Zoom webinar on Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC): Building Bridges to Pursue Continued Economic Prosperity and Inclusive Growth amid Global Uncertainties.

The event, on Thursday, 30 May 2024 at 9am Bangkok time, is presented by ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore.

The TU Library collection includes several books about different aspects of APEC.

As explained on the event website,

Peru is the host economy for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) in 2024. Under the overarching theme of “Empower. Include. Grow,” APEC member economies will advance a regional agenda with the following priorities: trade and investment for inclusive and interconnected growth; innovation and digitalisation to promote transition to the formal and global economy; and sustainable growth for resilient development.

During 17-18 May 2024, the APEC Ministers Responsible for Trade convened in Arequipa, Peru, to discuss key regional and global trade issues. They also met with the Ministers for Women on 17 May 2024 to discuss women’s economic empowerment through trade in the Asia-Pacific region. At these meetings, the APEC Policy Support Unit (PSU) released the latest issue of the APEC Regional Trend Analysis (ARTA). In addition, the PSU is currently doing work reinforcing the point that strengthening multilateral institutions of economic integration and trade is paramount to bolstering cross-border cooperation and rebuilding trust in the multilateral trading system.

This seminar will commence with a brief commentary on insights gleaned from these ministerial meetings, followed by a discussion of the economic and trade trends in the APEC region. It will then examine the issues of trade disengagement and geoeconomic fragmentation, which stand in direct opposition to APEC’s principles of economic integration and multilateralism.

About the Speakers

Carlos Kuriyama is Director of APEC Policy Support Unit (PSU), which is the policy research and analysis arm of APEC. […]

Emmanuel A. San Andres is a Senior Analyst at PSU. He conducts research in the areas of inclusive and sustainable growth, human capital development, labour and employment, cross-border mobility and tourism, financial inclusion, MSMEs, and low-carbon transition. […]

Students are invited to register at this link:

https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/9717155655427/WN_YfSAUqBlS8G5ptJUW4TW2w#/registration

In March 2024, Dr. Kuriyama gave a press conference which was reported on the APEC website:

APEC Growth Outlook Brightens But Risks Linger

Boosted by consumer and government spending, as well as tourism, the APEC region’s economy is expected to grow by 3.5 percent in 2023 and is projected to sustain growth at 3.2 percent in 2024, higher than earlier estimates, according to the APEC Policy Support Unit (PSU).

The updated report forecasts economic growth to moderate in 2025 to 2.8 percent with global uncertainties continuing to put pressure on economic recovery, in addition to the lagged effects of monetary tightening and scaled-down fiscal support measures that APEC economies have to face.

Presenting the report at the First APEC Senior Officials’ Meeting in Lima, Carlos Kuriyama, director of the PSU, warned that protectionism remains an issue as the number of trade restrictions and remedies increased anew in 2023.

“This is something that we need to really pay attention to, especially those of discriminatory in nature as they have the potential to cause some geoeconomic fragmentation—it is a lose-lose situation for APEC as a region as well as the world,” said Kuriyama.

“However, we are also seeing an uptick in trade facilitation with the number of measures in force enabling trade increasing from 618 in 2022 to 682 in 2023. This is encouraging,” Kuriyama added.

Inflation in the region is going down, reaching 3.0 percent in December 2023 compared to 6.1 percent in December 2022. The report notes that while inflation is declining, interest rate adjustments over the past year have partly influenced exchange rate movement. The currencies of 17 APEC economies depreciated 6 percent on average from February 2023 to February 2024, creating an upward pressure to prices and risking currency mismatch that may affect payment obligations.

“Monetary authorities need to remain on guard as incidents in the Red Sea and the drought in the Panama Canal are affecting shipping routes and freight costs that, in turn, could fuel inflationary pressures—making things more expensive,” said Rhea C. Hernando, an analyst with the PSU.

“These issues have resulted in extended sailing times by one to two weeks, causing container and vessel shortages, as well as potential port congestion,” Hernando added.

Data in mid-January 2024 reveal that composite shipping costs had nearly doubled, reaching the highest level in the past 12 months. While the latest data as of 1 February 2024 indicated some decline, the cost is still significant compared to the level a year ago. […]

 “We need a combination of balanced monetary and fiscal policies, at the same time, we need to strengthen regional cooperation to resolve the current challenges,” Kuriyama concluded.

An accompanying article coauthored by Dr. Kuriyama, also posted on the APEC website,

APEC: Navigating Fragile Growth, Trade Slowdown and Global Challenges, suggested in part:

Prospects, risks and opportunities

Economic prospects could be clouded by potential spikes in commodity prices, aggravated by persistent global uncertainties that could disrupt supply chains. Geoeconomic fragmentation could impact on trade relations, increase trade barriers and lead to reduced global trade activity as trading partnerships shift.

Rising debt, a pandemic legacy, could limit growth as economies move away from massive fiscal support measures toward fiscal consolidation. However, while fiscal policies are expected to tighten in 2024 to manage high debt levels, excessive spending cuts could also stifle economic activity.

Nevertheless, the likelihood of a significant economic downturn in the short-term has diminished as current inflation is decreasing more quickly than anticipated as monetary policy rate hikes have been effective and energy and food prices in general have been declining. Lower inflation is seen to positively impact on consumption and investment going forward. Moreover, tourism recovery is on track to return to its pre-pandemic level this year as pent-up demand combines with improved air connectivity and a more robust rebound in Asian markets and destinations.

Over the medium term, the adoption of modern technologies, such as artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to increase worker productivity and income. The extent of these benefits depends on how well economies harness AI’s potential and address associated challenges. This would require a strategic approach that combines technological investment, workforce readiness, and the promotion of innovation. Potential risks, such as human factors, including biases, prejudices, or experiences that can impact AI algorithms and models, influencing outcomes, have to be addressed. For example, algorithms could incorporate gender-based biases that could be amplified over time:  recommendation algorithms might favor certain male workers due to past trends, creating a cycle where men get more chances and recognition than women based on ratings providing biased feedback. Left unaddressed, these gender-based issues could set back APEC’s efforts on ensuring women’s digital inclusion, which in turn could translate into a loss of approximately USD 94 billion.

(All images courtesy of Wikimedia Commons)