Thammasat University students interested in ASEAN studies, Vietnam, economics, business, political science, history, international relations, and related subjects may find it useful to participate in a free 20 January Zoom webinar on Vietnam’s Economic Outlook: A Boom Year for 2025?
The event, on Monday, 20 January 2025 at 2pm Bangkok time, is presented by ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore.
The TU Library collection includes some books about different aspects of the economy of Vietnam.
Students are welcome to register for the event at this link:
https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/4017355315669/WN_MKVp-YBVTn6h0ae7Vlt0Ow#/registration
The event website explains:
About the Webinar
Although Vietnam’s National Assembly has set a target for GDP growth of 6.5-7% for the year 2025, government leaders expect the economy to exceed this target. A strong export performance and a significant inflow of foreign investment, along with ambitious domestic reforms under the new leadership and an accelerated infrastructure investment programme, will likely contribute to Vietnam’s positive economic outlook in 2025.
However, the economy may also face significant challenges, including global economic volatility and domestic issues such as potential power shortages and relatively weak domestic consumption.
In this webinar, we will analyze Vietnam’s economic performance in 2024 and assess its potential for 2025. The session will specifically look into the opportunities and challenges that the economy may face in the next twelve months, and provide insights into what they mean for investors.
About the Speakers
Tuan Ho is Senior Lecturer in Accounting and Finance at the University of Bristol Business School (United Kingdom) and a former Visiting Fellow at the Vietnam Studies Programme of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. He is also a member of the Editorial Board of Accounting and Business Research, Board of Advisors of the Vietnam Wealth Advisers (VWA), and the Education Lead in Accounting at the University of Bristol. […]
Long Tran is Head of Research at BIDV Securities (BSC), one of Vietnam’s oldest and most prominent securities firms. […]
From a research briefing posted on the website of the Oxford Economics advisory service:
Research Briefing | Dec 16, 2024
Vietnam: Growth will be ahead of regional peers in 2025
Vietnam’s economy has been the region’s outperformer in 2024, with full-year growth likely at 6.7% y/y. In 2025, we think Vietnam will continue to outperform its peers, growing by 6.5%.
What you will learn:
- Vietnam’s economy will be the standout among the ASEAN-6, growing at a faster pace relative to its peers during the next few years. We think growth in 2025 will be 6.5% y/y, led by manufacturing, with contributions from machinery and textiles. Upside risks are present, with a possible boost from the front-loading of orders driven by US tariff fears.
- Manufacturing fundamentals remain strong. Vietnam is a hub for assembly, packaging, and testing for semiconductor chips, and the chip-led tailwind will continue next year, though the boost will be weaker than in 2024. We expect some softness in the near-term.
- The domestic sector outlook remains bright. Solid wage growth, driven by FDI job creation, should support private consumption. With the number of operating enterprises still growing in annual terms, asset accumulation will likely be stronger in 2025, though FDI inflows may see a temporary slowdown in early 2025 while awaiting possible US tariff announcements on Vietnam.
- Credit growth should be better in 2025. Recent changes to credit controls and a better domestic business sector should provide some support to credit growth. However, the drag from real estate will likely last until end-2025, and offloading bad debt will take some time.
From the Asian Development Bank website:
Viet Nam’s vulnerability to natural hazards presents major risks to the country’s economy and infrastructure. Addressing climate change will remain at the core of ADB’s support program for Viet Nam, with the goal of supporting climate change adaptation and environmental sustainability, green development, digital transformation, and regional cooperation and integration.
In 2023, ADB approved an additional $1-million technical assistance project to help identify climate- and disaster-resilient projects for potential ADB financing, and to build capacity in preparing and processing projects for selected provinces. To strengthen the government’s economic management capacity, ADB also provided $1 million in technical assistance for (i) macroeconomic monitoring, (ii) the planning and execution of public investment and external financing, and (iii) development policy formulation.
To support Viet Nam in meeting its commitments to achieve net zero by 2050 made at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Glasgow (COP26), ADB also approved a $7-million technical assistance project to provide policy advice and capacity building to nurture financial technologies which will help address persistent financial inclusion challenges and improve green banking practices.
As of 31 December 2023, ADB has committed 458 public sector loans, grants, and technical assistance totaling $16.5 billion to Viet Nam. ADB’s current sovereign portfolio in Viet Nam includes 28 loans and 2 grants worth $2.95 billion.
Cumulative sovereign and nonsovereign loan and grant disbursements to Viet Nam amount to $12.79 billion. These were financed by regular and concessional ordinary capital resources, the Asian Development Fund, and other special funds.
Nonsovereign operations. Total outstanding balances and undisbursed commitments of ADB’s nonsovereign transactions in Viet Nam as of 31 December 2022 was $1.39 billion representing 10.9% of ADB’s total private sector portfolio.
Operational challenges. Viet Nam’s vulnerability to natural hazards, such as floods, storms, and drought, presents a major risk to the country’s economy and infrastructure. Future COVID-19 waves or new variants could affect the achievement of the objectives of the Socio-Economic Development Plan 2021–2025. ADB will continue to play a proactive role in disaster risk reduction efforts in Viet Nam as well as provide support for health system resilience.
Knowledge Work
The country knowledge plan for Viet Nam is an integral part of the CPS 2023–2026 and comprises ADB’s knowledge support to complement its lending operations in addressing the country’s evolving socioeconomic development needs.
Knowledge solutions delivered in 2023 include (i) policy support for the revision of the law on water resources, and technical review of the land law and the law on cooperatives from the ethnic minority perspective; (ii) capacity-building programs delivered to government agencies on knowledge management and strategic planning, tax administration, statistics, public–private partnerships, and gender mainstreaming; and (iii) various research, including support for the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Economic Surveys: Viet Nam 2023, and studies on digital and green growth, socioeconomic development of ethnic minorities, and development of women-owned small and medium-sized enterprises.
Future Directions
The Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) 2023-2026 supports Viet Nam in fostering inclusive, green, and private sector-led growth, with the goal of becoming an upper middle-income country by 2030. The CPS and ADB’s updated pipeline for 2024–2026 closely align with Viet Nam’s strategic priorities for medium- and long-term post-pandemic recovery, including (i) addressing climate change impacts; (ii) improving the efficiency of the economy; and (iii) promoting a science-, technology-, and innovation-based economy.
ADB will strengthen its sovereign operations at both the central and provincial levels following the recent substantial devolution of decision-making on public investments to the provinces. ADB will provide integrated lending and knowledge solutions focused on climate change and private sector development. ADB’s operational approach in Viet Nam will continue with (i) a proactive provincial approach while focusing on national priorities; and (ii) promoting greater synergies among sovereign and nonsovereign operations, advisory services, and knowledge work.
(All images courtesy of Wikimedia Commons)