On Tuesday, 31 May 2022 at 6:30pm Bangkok time, the Oxford Martin School at the University of Oxford, the United Kingdom, will present a free online seminar on Envisioning 2060: opportunities and risks for emerging markets.

The TU Library collection includes many books about emerging markets.

This event may be useful for students interested in economics, business, history, political science, sociology, and related subjects.

As the online description of the event explains,

The event will launch a book by the Emerging Markets Forum (EMF), a Washington DC based not-for-profit think tank focused on emerging economies.

The book takes a long-term perspective of emerging market economies through 2060. It highlights some of the fundamental and structural changes in the global economy accelerated by the pandemic as well as changes in geopolitics. It looks at the global megatrends, and the key issues such as climate change, rising inequality and inequities, fragility of international monetary system as well as rapid technological changes and their impact on the way we work that will heavily impact the future direction of most economies and societies. Finally, the volume highlights the fact that while many of the issues highlighted require joint actions at the global level, the current multilateral system is no longer geared to tackle them. It needs a major revamp as does the global economic governance.

The seminar will be structured as follows: Harinder Kohli, Founding Director of EMF and primary editor of the book, will present the Major Conclusions of the book; Montek Singh Ahluwalia, former Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission and G-20 Sherpa of India will discuss his chapter on What Emerging Economies Can and Should Do Fight Climate Change; and finally, Sir Suma Chakrabarti, Chairman of ODI and former President of EBRD will discuss the main findings and recommendations of his chapter on Global Governance and Reform of the Multilateral System. Professor Ian Goldin will moderate the seminar

This talk is organised by the Oxford Martin School and the Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Development.

To watch this talk live online, register on crowdcast here:

www.crowdcast.io/e/envisioning-2060

For further information or with any questions, kindly write to

events@oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk

The Oxford Martin School is a research and policy unit based in the Social Sciences Division of the University of Oxford.

Published by Penguin Random House India, Envisioning 2060: Opportunities and Risks for Emerging Markets was edited by Harinder Kohli, Rajat Nag, and Ieva Vilkelyte. It is described on the publisher’s page as follows:

Envisioning 2060 is a collection of articles by some of the world’s greatest economists and authors. Its carefully planned chapters encompass all major aspects of the evolving global economy-with a particular emphasis on emerging markets and economies-painting a wholesome picture for the contemporary reader, of what our world might grow to look like in the next forty years if we succeed or fail at addressing the myriad challenges confronting us today.

According to some economic estimates for which country will be the richest in 2060, China is expected to keep its current No. 2 position in the world GDP ranking until surpassing the United States (U.S.) around 2030. India will be the world’s third-largest economy in 2060, by which time China is predicted to be back at No. 2 and the U.S. in first place again.

An article originally published in Bloomberg Briefs – Europe suggests:

The balance of economic power will shift over the next half century. After recovery from the current crisis, global GDP could grow around 3 percent a year on average in the next 50 years. Growth in the 34-nation OECD area is projected at about 2 percent annually to 2060, with declining rates in many high-income countries.

Emerging countries will account for an ever-increasing share of output. While growth rates in emerging countries are expected to continue outpacing those in developed nations, the difference will narrow over the coming decades. Emerging economies’ growth will drop from the average 7 percent annual rates seen over the past decade to around 5 percent in the 2020s and about half that by the 2050s.

These growth patterns will lead to radical changes in the relative size of economies, with fast-growing emerging economies comprising an increasing share of global output. The U.S. is the largest economy today, accounting for around 23 percent of global output, but it will be exceeded by China, perhaps as soon as 2016. The combined GDP of China and India will soon surpass that of the G-7 economies, and will exceed that of the entire current OECD membership by 2060. Today’s economic heavyweights will lose ground to younger emerging powers like Indonesia and Brazil.

Education and productivity improvements will drive growth in both developed and emerging economies, with productivity gains being the most powerful driver. Countries with relatively low productivity today — such as India, China, Indonesia, Brazil and many nations in Eastern Europe — will experience faster productivity growth than the more developed economies as technology uptake and better business governance lead to convergence with advanced countries.

For some lower-income countries with comparatively low levels of average education — India, Turkey, China, Portugal and South Africa — the build up of skills will also add to growth. With most OECD economies — and also some emerging economies, such as China — expected to be hit by aging and declining working-age populations, labor is not expected to make major contributions to growth. Longer working lives will partially offset the decline in working-age populations.

The radical shift in global GDP will be matched by a trend of converging GDP per capita between developing and emerging economies. While GDP per capita in the poorest economies will more than quadruple over the 2011 to 2060 period, it will only double in the richest economies. Faster growth in low-income and emerging countries will reduce the wide gaps in living standards seen today with advanced countries, though large cross-country differences will persist. China will experience more than a sevenfold increase of its per capita income over the coming half century, though living standards will still only be 60 percent of those in the leading countries in 2060.

OECD research shows the outlook for global growth and living standards improves dramatically if countries implement structural reforms. Bolder reforms in labor and product markets could raise long-term living standards by an average of 16 percent relative to the baseline scenario, which only assumes moderate policy improvements. Ambitious product market reforms that raise productivity growth could increase global GDP by an average of about 10 percent, while policies that encourage labour force participation could increase GDP by more than 6 percent on average.

Without ambitious reforms, global imbalances may continue widening through 2030, potentially undermining future growth. Deeper structural reforms and faster fiscal consolidation, on the other hand, could reduce imbalances by as much as a quarter over the same period.

Inaction is no longer a choice OECD nations or emerging economies can afford.

An Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) policy paper, The Long Game: Fiscal Outlooks to 2060 Underline Need for Structural Reform also states that action is required to improve conditions in 2060.

(All images courtesy of Wikimedia Commons)