Thammasat University students interested in ASEAN studies, Vietnam, political science, international relations, diplomacy, and related subjects may find it useful to participate in a free 29 May Zoom webinar on Navigating Strategic Uncertainties: Vietnam’s Pursuit of Strategic Autonomy in a Changing World.

The event, on Wednesday, 29 May 2024 at 9am Bangkok time, is presented by ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore.

The TU Library collection includes several books about Vietnam and autonomy.

As explained on the event website,

About the Webinar

As the world faces increasing strategic uncertainties, due to growing regional conflicts, intensified great power competition, economic fluctuations, technological advancements, and evolving security challenges, pursuing strategic autonomy has become an imperative for Vietnam and other nations. This webinar introduces an advanced understanding of strategic autonomy as the utmost level of autonomy a state can achieve within a five-level framework, proposing it as a crucial response to the fluid international environment. Highlighting Vietnam’s unique geopolitical position, the session will explore the multifaceted challenges of strategic uncertainty, including economic and technological aspects, alongside traditional security concerns. It will also discuss measures Vietnam has undertaken to enhance its resilience and adaptability in an unpredictable future, and how striving for strategic autonomy underpins Vietnam’s recent elevation in relations with key partners. Attendees will gain valuable insights into how Vietnam can navigate the complexities of the modern geopolitical landscape and protect its national interests through strategic autonomy in an era marked by ever-greater uncertainty.

About the Speaker

Dr. Vu Le Thai Hoang is Director General of the Institute of Foreign Policy and Strategic Studies and Dean of the Faculty of International Politics and Diplomacy at the Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam. […]

Students are invited to register at this link:

https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/2217153114242/WN_jVdsxxfUSeGzYMBsWCszCQ#/registration

Last year Dr. Vu coauthored an article in The Diplomat. An excerpt:

10 Years On: Why Strategic Trust Still Matters

As the Indo-Pacific emerges as the central theater of geopolitical rivalry, the absence of strategic trust is not merely an academic concern but a pressing existential issue.

At the 12th Shangri-La Dialogue in 2013, then-Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung issued a passionate plea for countries to build strategic trust, emphatically noting that “if trust is lost, all is lost.” By many accounts, the keynote address was a hit, as it directly tackled one of the most pressing issues that concerned all countries in the region.

Ten years later, the situation in the South China Sea has become more complicated. Superpower competition remains intense as ever, despite some sporadic efforts to keep it from spiraling out of control. Amid warnings of a potential “Thucydides trap,” some are worried that a conflict might break out over Taiwan as soon as 2025, which would be an unmitigated disaster given that such military scenario will almost certainly involve the leading nuclear powers. Meanwhile, nuclear proliferation is always a lurking threat, as countries continue to engage in an arms race.

Yet it is evident that solving the greatest global challenges of the day, from fighting climate change to regulating emergent technologies, will demand meaningful cooperation among major powers. Furthermore, the United States, China, and Russia all understand that they cannot wish their adversary away.

This is precisely why strategic trust matters so much. Deterrence, while necessary, cannot lead to true stability over the long haul. Only by fostering strategic trust can nations survive the complexities of modern geopolitics while avoiding catastrophic war.

Strategic Trust: What it is and Why it Matters

Realism, the dominant paradigm in international relations, has often dismissed the importance of strategic trust. In an anarchic international system, so the argument goes, states cannot afford the luxury of trust. Instead, self-interest reigns supreme, urging nations to keep their cards close to their chests, lest their transparency and honesty be exploited. While this viewpoint holds some merit, it overlooks the fact that strategic trust serves as a survival strategy in its own right.

In an age marked by existential threats that defy borders – climate change, pandemics, and nuclear proliferation – states increasingly find that survival requires more than just deterrence and power balancing. It demands an ability to build stable, predictable relationships with other nations. For Vietnam, strategic trust is not just a series of verbal commitments; it is a multi-layered framework that necessitates transparency, sincerity, and concrete actions. It entails efforts to make state behaviors more understandable and predictable, thereby reducing the risk of misunderstandings. Strategic trust offers an additional mechanism in a world devoid of a central authority, tempering the destructive tendencies of power politics by making state behavior more predictable and reducing the risks of catastrophic miscalculations.

One might argue that the very existence and success of international institutions like the United Nations embody this form of trust. The U.N. and many other bodies, all founded on the principle that cooperation often outweighs the gains of unilateral action, provide a framework within which nations can engage diplomatically. Here, strategic trust manifests in the implicit understanding that states will, in most cases, respect each other’s sovereignty and act in ways that benefit the global community, even when immediate self-interest could suggest otherwise.

But nowhere is the utility of strategic trust more vivid than in the regional sphere, exemplified by ASEAN. The “ASEAN Way,” predicated on consultation and consensus, has been criticized for being inefficient. Yet its existence is proof of ASEAN’s norm-setting power. ASEAN has managed to bridge the gap between nations as diverse as Indonesia, with its population nearing a quarter-billion, and Brunei, with fewer than half a million inhabitants. As a champion of international law and multilateralism, ASEAN is committed to creating a forum for regional dialogue and conflict resolution, which successfully turned Southeast Asia from a Cold War battleground into a region largely characterized by peace and increasing integration.

More recently, the importance of strategic trust is once again shown in the transformation of U.S.-Vietnam relations. Once defined by enmity and conflict, the relationship has evolved into a comprehensive strategic partnership against all odds. This dramatic shift can be attributed to a meticulous and deliberate process of cultivating strategic trust, one founded on key principles that both nations hold in high regard. These include mutual respect for each country’s independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity, and political systems, as well as a shared commitment to addressing the lingering consequences of war. Far from being mere rhetorical flourishes, these principles have been operationalized through various concrete measures: enhanced trade agreements, educational exchanges on various levels, and defense collaborations. The U.S.-Vietnam relationship is therefore a blueprint for how strategic trust can turn potential adversaries into partners.

Strategic trust is therefore, far from idealistic thinking, but instead a necessary antidote to the complexities and interdependencies of the modern world. It doesn’t negate self-interest but complements it, allowing states to slowly convert zero-sum scenarios into positive-sum outcomes. […]

(All images courtesy of Wikimedia Commons)