Thammasat University students interested in American studies, political science, diplomacy, international relations, and related subjects may find it useful to participate in a free 8 October Zoom webinar on Global Stakes: Trump vs. Harris and the Future of U.S. Foreign Policy.

The event, on Tuesday, 8 October 2024 at 8am Bangkok time, is presented by ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore.

The TU Library collection includes some books about different aspects of American foreign policy.

Students are welcome to register for the event at this link:

https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/1017270703812/WN_8JMx-2OCQhSKW9v6A_nAhg#/

The event website explains:

About the Webinar

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, the webinar explores the potential foreign policy trajectories of presidential candidates Donald J. Trump and Kamala Harris. Both candidates are established figures in the international arena, yet each presents distinct characteristics to their prospective foreign policies that merit close examination. Both candidates are expected to maintain a firm stance on China and uphold protectionist policies, but their worldviews and diplomatic styles differ significantly. Trump’s earlier presidency was marked by a transactional and often adversarial stance towards multilateralism, U.S. alliances and global trade. Should he return to office, how might he further advance his “America First” doctrine? Conversely, while Harris is expected to build on Biden’s legacy, her personal and professional experiences and perspectives may introduce deviations from Biden, including a potentially stronger emphasis on progressive and liberal values. This webinar will examine the potential foreign policy directions of both candidates, assessing their impact on U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy, U.S.-China relations, and engagement with Southeast Asia, and identify the opportunities and challenges that Southeast Asian countries may face depending on the election outcome.

About the Speaker

Dr. Michael Jonathan Green is CEO of the United States Studies Centre in Sydney, Australia and Non-Resident Senior Advisor and Henry A. Kissinger Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Washington D.C. […]

The TU Library collection includes books by Dr. Green.

Earlier this year, Dr. Green posted an article on the website of the United States Studies Centre. a joint venture of the American Australian Association and the University of Sydney, with financial support from the Australian Government.

Headlined What would a Harris administration do on foreign policy?, the article began:

Since Vice President Kamala Harris emerged as the standard-bearer for the Democratic Party in July, she has reinvigorated the campaign against Donald Trump and is slightly ahead in most swing states, where a month ago Democrats thought they might lose the White House, Senate and House. The country is still politically divided and under any scenario the race is likely to be close, but Democrats have a bounce in their step for the first time in many months.

So if Harris wins in November, what would her administration actually do? This question has fallen to the background somewhat with the rollercoaster of political news the past month, but it is actually the most important question of all. Harris has issued a somewhat populist economic manifesto but no clear foreign policy statement yet. Nevertheless, we can discern some of the contours of what a Harris policy on international affairs, Asia, and the Korean peninsula might be. […]

However, Harris’s advisors do say that she has a coherent worldview. They point to her keynote speech at the Munich Security Conference in February as the best example. That speech was largely about the NATO and Ukraine also elaborated on Biden’s argument that international affairs today are a clash between authoritarian states and democracies. This appears to be more than just echoing her boss. Her staff speaks of her deep interest in “principled global engagement.” When they describe the objectives of her foreign policy, they repeat the words “rules and norms” often, noting that as a former prosecutor and State attorney general she often sees geopolitics in those legal and normative terms. In that sense, she would probably find much common ground with President Yoon Suk Yeol, another former prosecutor.

On Asia, Harris and her advisors emphasize the centrality of U.S. alliances with Korea and others and the importance of continuing the Washington Declaration with Seoul and Camp David commitments trilaterally with Japan. She is also a realist about China and the inescapability of “strategic competition” with Beijing in key areas like the South China Sea, AI, and regional influence. Her top two national security advisors are Phil Gordon, whose main areas of expertise are Europe and the Middle East, and Rebecca Lisner, who is a broad expert on national security strategy. Harris has taken far more trips to Europe than Asia as Vice President — and her Asia trips focused on Southeast Asia — but that schedule is one dictated by the Oval Office and the NSC as much as her own staff. Presumably as President, she would continue to lead on core Asia Hands like Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell.

There are a few areas where Harris has demonstrated a keen personal interest in national security. These include AI and space (the latter often being the purvue of vice presidents), as well as gender which Harris would likely emphasize even more than Biden in foreign policy pronouncements. Climate is also a central theme for Harris which she and her advisors describe as “equally important to geopolitical competition with China and Russia.”

One other hint about how Harris might approach Asia comes with her Vice Presidential candidate, Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota. I hosted Walz and a Minnesota delegation in Sydney, Australia last year and found him incredibly engaging and interested in the region. He taught English in China for a year and while the Republicans are trying to tarnish him as pro-China, the reality is that he has been a strong critic of human rights abuses in China and an advocate of U.S. alliances in the region. He could emerge as a key player with allies like Korea going forward if the Democrats win the election.

These are all reassuring aspects of a potential Harris administration. But there are also questions looming about her approach to Asia and the world. On trade policy, Harris appears to be even less forward-leaning than Biden. Her staff uses the term “workers policy” instead of “trade policy” in meetings — a clear indication of the influence of the progressives’ hold on that issue. Her national security team makes even less of an effort to make the case for the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) than Biden’s team does. It is possible that as a pragmatist focused on geopolitical competition with China, she would come around to a more activist economic policy in Asia, but the indications of such a potential shift are not there yet.

(All images courtesy of Wikimedia Commons)